NH Governor Lynch believes that Bonnie Newman will not run for the Senate in 2010. The experience of a certain Senator from next door should bring him back to reality. What do Newman and Susan Collins (R-ME) have in common?
| Newman (R-NH) | Collins (R-ME) |
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Staffer to Former Republican Senator | Yes (Gregg) | Yes (Cohen) |
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R Predecessor to D President's Cabinet | Yes (Obama) | Yes (Clinton) |
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Committed to Term Limit in Senate | Yes (2 years) | Yes (12 years) |
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Senator Susan Collins (R-ME) just won reelection despite having promised ON THE RECORD not to run after two terms. Will Newman follow her lead?
Ok, some analysis ...
William Cohen was an extremely popular Senator in Maine, and Susan Collins benefited from his endorsement and support in 1996. Perhaps to tip the scale in her 3-way race, Collins felt compelled to promise not to run after two terms (term limits supposedly popular in Maine then). Cohen was subsequently tapped for Secretary of Defense by Bill Clinton, and was perceived as having done a decent job. Collins herself did not deviate much from Cohen's positions, so she easily won reelection in 2002. By 2008 Collins had her own track record, and Maine voters could see her as separated from any Cohen legacy. When she broke her promise not to run again, the Maine Dems hit her hard for it. It was not enough to overcome her own record, and it may have helped Collins that her opponent was not a vigorous campaigner.
Judd Gregg, by contrast, is not as popular in NH as Cohen was in ME, although he may rehabilitate himself with NH depending on how he does in his new job. If Gregg's endorsement for 2010 becomes (is?) a political asset for Newman, she may consider running after all.
Given the similarities, I would not be surprised if Collins offers her some advice.